Talking to a couple of Commission officials on the train this morning, one British and one German. Neither of them believes that Cameron will hold a referendum. In fact, neither of them believes that Cameron will win a majority in the next general election, a prediction that I am inclined to agree with.
Of course the promised referendum is somewhat dependent upon that happening, as it is dependent on so many other factors, any of which could give the Prime Minister an escape route.
A referendum is, of course, the last thing that he wants.
If a 'cast-iron guarantee' was so easily reneged on, then what value is there in a vague promise?
This is a fascinating situation in which we find ourselves. In order to buy himself time, Mr Cameron has made his promise. Does he not realise that of the 27 member states, the UK sits isolated. There is a call for a new treaty, but this will surely reflect the wishes of the other 26 - increased integration, and the further federalisation of the EU. So what happens when he has to go to the country empty handed? He will try to renege on the referendum, that is almost a certainty.
But we are not going away. We Demand A Referendum will be standing a full list of candidates across the country.