|L-R Dr Marat Terterov, Ambassador Vladimir Rakhmanin, et Moi.|
I was delighted to be asked to speak at the first of a series of lectures on EU External Relations at the University of Kent recently.
The key speaker was Ambassador Vladimir Rakhmanin, Deputy Secretary-General of the Energy Charter, and former Head of Protocol to President Putin. So I guessed I might have a tough act to follow. I was right.
I led on my thoughts about the polar development of Europe. We not only live in a multi-polar world, we live in a multi-polar Europe. The EU is not as dominant as it would like to be, at least not in political terms. The other two major actors exerting influence are Turkey and Russia. In the case of the former, the alternative to the EU membership that is denied to the Turks is to build their own powerbase, which they are doing very effectively. In the case of the latter, I speculated on the emergence of a Sino-Russian pact, and the economic and security implications that may have for the EU.
The Ambassador disagreed with me about the likelihood, but I remain convinced that we are already seeing the emergence of such a pact. Since Putin first took power in 2000, Russia and China have become very close indeed. In fact, the two nations have always been close, it was only after the ideological divergence following the Second World War that the two clashed. The rift appears to be healed now, and I believe that the re-election of Putin next year will bring about a number of re-alignments in Europe and in Central Asia.
We did both agree on one thing: Fukiyama was spectacularly wrong when he proclaimed the End of History. Liberal Democracy, he argued, became the one dominant ideology after the fall of Communism. We now have to take into account Sovereign Democracy, whatever form of democracy develops in the wake of the welcome fall of the Arab regimes, and the Command Capitalism of China. The latter two, incidentally, are stronger politically than the former.
We live in interesting times.